NFL DraftShark.com |
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Trade Chart |
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How it was
built: |
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The first thing I realized is that there is
no perfect trade chart. The depth of
the draft, the number, distribution and tradeablity of compensation picks can
cause the value of individual picks to vary greatly. So I decided to build an individual trade
chart using the same parameters (First pick=10,000, last pick <10), for
each year. I then simply averaged the
value of each pick over the now 28 years of data. In some years the value of the first few
picks had to exceed 10,000 due to some wild trades up for a QB. In fact the average value of pick #1 is 10,239. In order to keep the value at 10,000 and
maintain the relative value of each pick,
all pick values were then multiplied by 10,000/10,239. Each year's trade chart is a separate
worksheet in the same EXCEL file. The
chart below is the top page (Composite Chart) where the calculations are
done. |
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How to use it: |
Read this
first!!! |
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First some definitions. The pick used to compensate the team moving
down is the Compensation pick. For example a team
moving down from 10 receives pick 14 and a 3rd round pick. The third round pick is the compensation
pick. If the team receives additional
pick(s) beyond the compensation pick, those picks are called bonus picks. Bonus picks have bonus point value. A bonus pick in rounds 1-3, including
future years, receives an additional 100 bonus points. A bonus pick rounds 4-7 regardless of year
get 50 bonus points. To value a trade,
merely add up the value of picks each team receives and then add the bonus
points for the supplemental picks. NFL Discount Rule:
1. Picks from future drafts are valued at the midpoint
between pick 16 and 17 (i e. midround value) one round lower for each year in
the future they occur. Thus a 2025 2nd
round pick would be valued at the midpoint of the third round in 2024 or
675.5 points. 2. A current round
pick traded for a future pick is worth the midpoint value of one round
higher. So a 2nd round pick this year
is worth a mid first round pick next year.
Recently this has morphed into the future pick plus a day 3 pick. |
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This Chart has now been updated and formatted for the 2024 NFL
Draft |
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For a full explanation of the study and the
list of all 693 trades click the red button below |
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www.NFLDraftShark.com/Tradedoc.htm |
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Bill's
Composite Pick Trade Value Sheet 1996 - 2023 |
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Round 1 |
Round 2 |
Round 3 |
Round 4 |
Round 5 |
Round 6 |
Round 7 |
Overall |
Pick |
Value |
Overall |
Pick |
Value |
Overall |
Pick |
Value |
Overall |
Pick |
Value |
Overall |
Pick |
Value |
Overall |
Pick |
Value |
Overall |
Pick |
Value |
1 |
1 |
10000 |
33 |
1 |
2663 |
65 |
1 |
977 |
101 |
1 |
400 |
136 |
1 |
155 |
177 |
1 |
71 |
221 |
1 |
24 |
2 |
2 |
9502 |
34 |
2 |
2598 |
66 |
2 |
951 |
102 |
2 |
389 |
137 |
2 |
152 |
178 |
2 |
70 |
222 |
2 |
23 |
3 |
3 |
8706 |
35 |
3 |
2522 |
67 |
3 |
923 |
103 |
3 |
375 |
138 |
3 |
148 |
179 |
3 |
68 |
223 |
3 |
23 |
4 |
4 |
8225 |
36 |
4 |
2439 |
68 |
4 |
901 |
104 |
4 |
368 |
139 |
4 |
145 |
180 |
4 |
66 |
224 |
4 |
22 |
5 |
5 |
7729 |
37 |
5 |
2359 |
69 |
5 |
875 |
105 |
5 |
358 |
140 |
5 |
142 |
181 |
5 |
65 |
225 |
5 |
22 |
6 |
6 |
7231 |
38 |
6 |
2288 |
70 |
6 |
857 |
106 |
6 |
346 |
141 |
6 |
140 |
182 |
6 |
64 |
226 |
6 |
21 |
7 |
7 |
6781 |
39 |
7 |
2231 |
71 |
7 |
837 |
107 |
7 |
338 |
142 |
7 |
138 |
183 |
7 |
63 |
227 |
7 |
20 |
8 |
8 |
6438 |
40 |
8 |
2177 |
72 |
8 |
818 |
108 |
8 |
329 |
143 |
8 |
136 |
184 |
8 |
61 |
228 |
8 |
19 |
9 |
9 |
6194 |
41 |
9 |
2117 |
73 |
9 |
799 |
109 |
9 |
323 |
144 |
9 |
129 |
185 |
9 |
60 |
229 |
9 |
19 |
10 |
10 |
5826 |
42 |
10 |
2053 |
74 |
10 |
783 |
110 |
10 |
312 |
145 |
10 |
130 |
186 |
10 |
59 |
230 |
10 |
18 |
11 |
11 |
5558 |
43 |
11 |
2006 |
75 |
11 |
769 |
111 |
11 |
306 |
146 |
11 |
127 |
187 |
11 |
58 |
231 |
11 |
17 |
12 |
12 |
5319 |
44 |
12 |
1948 |
76 |
12 |
748 |
112 |
12 |
300 |
147 |
12 |
124 |
188 |
12 |
56 |
232 |
12 |
17 |
13 |
13 |
5101 |
45 |
13 |
1882 |
77 |
13 |
729 |
113 |
13 |
292 |
148 |
13 |
122 |
189 |
13 |
55 |
233 |
13 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
4905 |
46 |
14 |
1830 |
78 |
14 |
714 |
114 |
14 |
286 |
149 |
14 |
121 |
190 |
14 |
53 |
234 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
4700 |
47 |
15 |
1785 |
79 |
15 |
698 |
115 |
15 |
278 |
150 |
15 |
119 |
191 |
15 |
52 |
235 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
4527 |
48 |
16 |
1737 |
80 |
16 |
685 |
116 |
16 |
271 |
151 |
16 |
117 |
192 |
16 |
51 |
236 |
16 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
4383 |
49 |
17 |
1692 |
81 |
17 |
668 |
117 |
17 |
264 |
152 |
17 |
115 |
193 |
17 |
51 |
237 |
17 |
13 |
18 |
18 |
4248 |
50 |
18 |
1653 |
82 |
18 |
649 |
118 |
18 |
255 |
153 |
18 |
113 |
194 |
18 |
50 |
238 |
18 |
13 |
19 |
19 |
4099 |
51 |
19 |
1596 |
83 |
19 |
631 |
119 |
19 |
245 |
154 |
19 |
111 |
195 |
19 |
49 |
239 |
19 |
12 |
20 |
20 |
3960 |
52 |
20 |
1554 |
84 |
20 |
616 |
120 |
20 |
243 |
155 |
20 |
108 |
196 |
20 |
47 |
240 |
20 |
12 |
21 |
21 |
3820 |
53 |
21 |
1502 |
85 |
21 |
602 |
121 |
21 |
236 |
156 |
21 |
106 |
197 |
21 |
46 |
241 |
21 |
11 |
22 |
22 |
3711 |
54 |
22 |
1457 |
86 |
22 |
587 |
122 |
22 |
227 |
157 |
22 |
104 |
198 |
22 |
45 |
242 |
22 |
10 |
23 |
23 |
3591 |
55 |
23 |
1406 |
87 |
23 |
574 |
123 |
23 |
218 |
158 |
23 |
101 |
199 |
23 |
44 |
243 |
23 |
10 |
24 |
24 |
3495 |
56 |
24 |
1358 |
88 |
24 |
560 |
124 |
24 |
211 |
159 |
24 |
100 |
200 |
24 |
42 |
244 |
24 |
9 |
25 |
25 |
3403 |
57 |
25 |
1308 |
89 |
25 |
546 |
125 |
25 |
204 |
160 |
25 |
98 |
201 |
25 |
41 |
245 |
25 |
9 |
26 |
26 |
3297 |
58 |
26 |
1263 |
90 |
26 |
531 |
126 |
26 |
198 |
161 |
26 |
97 |
202 |
26 |
40 |
246 |
26 |
8 |
27 |
27 |
3213 |
59 |
27 |
1216 |
91 |
27 |
517 |
127 |
27 |
192 |
162 |
27 |
96 |
203 |
27 |
39 |
247 |
27 |
8 |
28 |
28 |
3107 |
60 |
28 |
1160 |
92 |
28 |
503 |
128 |
28 |
186 |
163 |
28 |
95 |
204 |
28 |
38 |
248 |
28 |
7 |
29 |
29 |
3011 |
61 |
29 |
1120 |
93 |
29 |
491 |
129 |
29 |
181 |
164 |
29 |
93 |
205 |
29 |
37 |
249 |
29 |
6 |
30 |
30 |
2915 |
62 |
30 |
1083 |
94 |
30 |
475 |
130 |
30 |
176 |
165 |
30 |
91 |
206 |
30 |
35 |
250 |
30 |
6 |
31 |
31 |
2822 |
63 |
31 |
1047 |
95 |
31 |
464 |
131 |
31 |
172 |
166 |
31 |
88 |
207 |
31 |
34 |
251 |
31 |
5 |
32 |
32 |
2740 |
64 |
32 |
1002 |
*96 |
*32 |
452 |
132 |
32 |
170 |
167 |
32 |
85 |
208 |
32 |
33 |
252 |
32 |
5 |
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*97 |
*33 |
441 |
*133 |
*33 |
166 |
*168 |
*33 |
84 |
*209 |
*33 |
32 |
*253 |
*33 |
4 |
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*98 |
*34 |
428 |
*134 |
*34 |
163 |
*169 |
*34 |
82 |
*210 |
*34 |
31 |
*254 |
*34 |
3 |
* Indicates a
compensatory pick |
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*99 |
*35 |
418 |
*135 |
*35 |
159 |
*170 |
*35 |
81 |
*211 |
*35 |
31 |
*255 |
*35 |
2 |
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*100 |
*36 |
409 |
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*171 |
*36 |
80 |
*212 |
*36 |
30 |
*256 |
*36 |
2 |
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*172 |
*37 |
79 |
*213 |
*37 |
30 |
*257 |
*37 |
1 |
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*173 |
*38 |
78 |
*214 |
*38 |
29 |
No Pick |
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1 |
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*174 |
*39 |
76 |
*215 |
*39 |
29 |
No Pick |
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1 |
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*175 |
*40 |
75 |
*216 |
*40 |
28 |
No Pick |
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0 |
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*176 |
*41 |
73 |
*217 |
*41 |
27 |
No Pick |
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0 |
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*218 |
*42 |
26 |
No Pick |
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0 |
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*219 |
*43 |
25 |
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*220 |
*44 |
25 |
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No |
Pick |
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No |
Pick |
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No |
Pick |
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